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Consumption 2006-2008

JMR's Monthly Newsletter on Consumption Economic Data for Feb. 2009
by Mamoru Sugano

JMR's analysis of Japanese government consumer data.  Monthly economic data is analyzed monthly by JMR's M. Sugano on our Japanese web site (www.jmrlsi.co.jp)   For overseas readers we selected one of his recent reports and present part of it here. For more details see the original Japanese version (click here).

Consumption Trends  2006 to Nov. 2008
The downward trend in economic data continued unabated across all consumer buying categories in February.  However, fast food chains, especially hamburger and beef bowl chains, represented a bright spot of buying activity.  Here we present 11 charts that highlight trends in Japan.


Title: Chart 1, Japan Consumer Index, 2003 - 2008

The consumption index charted from 2003 shows the index testing new lows the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008 but rebounding at the end of year as expected for the year end holiday season and bonuses paid to workers.

Title: Chart 2, Monthly trend by store type

The monthly trends presented in Chart 2  show the categories of spending (with a reading of 100 for the base year). The red marks all the months in which sales were down compared to the prior year. The much small blue zones indicate year-on-year improvements.  Take for instance the department store and chain store rows:  here there are steady streams of red declines from the end of 2007 up to the most recent period for which there is official data.

Title: Chart 3, Yearly changes in consumption by store type

Yearly changes in spending for the past 3 years shown annual declines in apparel sales at chain stores, fast food sales overall (but see the later charts here for burger and rice-bowl specialty shop data which fared better) and family restaurant sales.

Title: Chart 4, Spending vs. disposable income trend

Annual declines of greater than 5 percentage points dominant the chart (shown in pink).   The spikes  in disposal income shown June and December are the norm for Japan due to the bonus system which pays out extra months of salary in those months.



Title: Chart 5, Ten largest consumption categories

For the 12-month period ending Nov., 2008, overall consumption was up 1.8% YoY.  Due to increase energy prices, rather than usage increase,  the transportation area shows an increase. Families apparently cut back on education and other miscellaneous expenses when faced with the tougher economic situation.

Title: Chart 6, Consumption - Best and Worst 5

Spending on dining out and entertainment showed modest gains in the year to Nov. 2008, while miscellaneous household allowances and education payments were cut to balance home budgets. 

Title: Chart 7, Fast food chain monthly sales trends

The chart shows month sales trend for the past 3 years.  The spending on dining out parallels the bonus and holiday seasons in Japan.

Title: Chart 8, Fast food sales by food type

Blue zones mark periods of sales gains of 5% YoY.   While total dining visitors were slightly lower in November 2008,  the amount spent rose.




Title: Chart 9, Fast food chain store sales - new & existing stores

Japan's largest fast food chains --  Mcdonald's, Moss Burger and Kentucky Fried Chicken -- all saw stronger demand beginning in October, 2008.

Title: Chart 10, Rice bowl type food chain sales

The Japanese adaptation of the burger shop -- selling rice bowl  topped with beef, shrimp and other food items -- maintained steady sales throughout last year with the Yoshinoya chain outperformed peers Sukiya and Matsuya in the latter part of the year.

Title: Chart 11, Leading fast food chain in Japan - new & existing store sales

Overall hamburger based menus outsold the Japanese rice-bowl competition chain shops.